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Modelling And Forecasting The Electricity Demand In Administration Building At Technology Campus UTeM By Using Statistical Analysis

Shamsuddin, Norsuriana (2016) Modelling And Forecasting The Electricity Demand In Administration Building At Technology Campus UTeM By Using Statistical Analysis. Project Report. UTeM, Melaka, Malaysia. (Submitted)

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Abstract

In this paper, an essential element of electric utility resource planning is forecasting the annual electricity consumption for the short term. This study includes an approach to determine the model of electricity demand and forecast future electricity consumption, by using ARIMA for Administration Building at Technology Campus Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka (UTeM). The process of study is to select the best model using statistical analysis and testing it by using data from kilowatt meter to understand its accuracy. After obtaining the most reliable model, forecasting the electricity demand is performed. The best model was selected using lowest value of Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and the result is for Administration Building in Faculty of Engineering Technology (FTK) is model ARIMA (1,1,1) while for Administration Building in Faculty of Mechanical Engineering (FKM) is model ARIMA (2,1,2). The scenario is developed by means of how the variable is going to be changed in the following time. The model yields very satisfactory result and the range of electricity consumption in 20 days ahead are obtained.

Item Type: Monograph (Project Report)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Electric power consumption - Forecasting - Statistical methods, Electric power distribution
Subjects: H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
Divisions: Library > Projek Sarjana Muda > FTK
Depositing User: Mohd Hannif Jamaludin
Date Deposited: 20 Sep 2017 08:33
Last Modified: 20 Sep 2017 08:33
URI: http://eprints.utem.edu.my/id/eprint/19180

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