Adaptive-XGBoost for improved long-term multi-step traffic flow prediction.

Omar, Mas and Yakub, Fitri and Aji Wijaya, Andika and Azizan, Azizul and Mohd Hussein, Shamsul Faisal and Govindan, Niranjana (2024) Adaptive-XGBoost for improved long-term multi-step traffic flow prediction. In: Proceeding of International Exchange and Innovation Conference on Engineering & Sciences (IEICES).

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Abstract

Long-term multi-step traffic flow prediction is crucial for effective traffic management. Recently, XGBoost has demonstrated its capability in multi-step prediction applications. However, optimal hyperparameter tuning using adaptive intelligent methods like the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm has yet to be explored. This paper presents an Adaptive eXtreme Gradient Boosting (Adaptive-XGBoost) model utilising the direct method with the combination of Grid Search and PSO algorithms for adaptive hyperparameter tuning for multi-step prediction. This approach aims to demonstrate the potential of Adaptive-XGBoost compared to existing deep learning models like Long- Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Transformer in terms of Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Experimental results show that the Adaptive-XGBoost model achieved a 3.10% and 4.98% improvement in MAE over the Transformer and LSTM models, respectively, and a 0.26% and 5.69% improvement in RMSE. These findings highlight the potential of Adaptive-XGBoost for improved long-term multi-step traffic flow prediction.

Item Type:	Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Divisions:	Faculty Of Mechanical Technology And Engineering
Depositing User:	NURHASHIRAH BORHAN
Date Deposited:	31 Jul 2026 07:23
Last Modified:	31 Jul 2026 07:23
URI:	http://eprints.utem.edu.my/id/eprint/30112
Statistic Details:	View Download Statistic

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