Plant residual time modelling based on observed variables in oil samples

Wang, W. and Hussin, B. (2009) Plant residual time modelling based on observed variables in oil samples. Journal of the Operational Research Society , 60. pp. 789-796. ISSN 0160-5682

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This paper presents a model and methodology for estimating the residual time of a plant item. This plant item can be an engine or any complex technical system monitored by a regularly spaced oil analysis programme. Typically in the oil samples taken, two groups of observed variables are available, namely, metal concentrations and variables related to the condition of the lubricant and contaminants. We term the former as internal variables and the latter as external variables. External variables are those that may cause the change of the underlying condition of the plant item and therefore the residual time, while internal variables are those variables that only reflect the residual time but cannot change it. We modelled both variables in an oil-based monitoring case, but the principle can be generalized to other monitoring situations. The main techniques used are stochastic filtering for residual time prediction and the maximum likelihood method for parameters estimation. The model established was fitted to the real data of marine diesel engines monitored by an oil analysis programme and the results are presented.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: Q Science > Q Science (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Information and Communication Technology > Department of Industrial Computing
Depositing User: Burairah Hussin
Date Deposited: 29 Nov 2011 05:17
Last Modified: 29 Nov 2011 09:23
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