Comparative performance of ARIMA and DES models in forecasting electricity load demand in Malaysia

Miswan, Nor Hamizah and Mohd Said, Rahaini and Hussin, Nor Hafizah and Hamzah, Khairum and Ahmad, Emy Zairah (2016) Comparative performance of ARIMA and DES models in forecasting electricity load demand in Malaysia. International Journal Of Electrical & Computer Sciences IJECS-IJENS, 16 (1). pp. 6-9. ISSN 2227-2739

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Abstract

Malaysia is a developing country which is having a high level of energy demand. Load demand forecasting is essential that is also in line with increasing demand of electricity. The purpose of the current study is to compare the performance of two time series models in forecasting electricity load demand in Malaysia. Two methods are considered, which are Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES). Using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as the forecasting performance measure, the study concludes that ARIMA is more appropriate model.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Load forecasting, Time series, ARIMA, DES
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General)
Divisions:	Faculty of Engineering Technology
Depositing User:	Mohd Hannif Jamaludin
Date Deposited:	16 Aug 2016 02:58
Last Modified:	18 Jul 2023 12:03
URI:	http://eprints.utem.edu.my/id/eprint/16992
Statistic Details:	View Download Statistic

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